Every match predicted before kickoff, then scored against the real result. Receipts kept in public.
The AI's call: Arsenal Favoured Most likely scoreline 1-1 (13.4%).
| Newcastle win | 21% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28% |
| Arsenal win | 51% |
Medium Confidence
3 of 8 results called correctly (38%) · 0 exact scorelines · 3/24 prediction points.
| Date | Opponent | Called | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Everton FC | Win | ✗ missed |
| 2026-10-29 | Everton | Loss | ✓ result |
| 2026-10-25 | Crystal Palace FC | Loss | ✗ missed |
| 2026-10-17 | Aston Villa FC | Win | ✗ missed |
| 2026-10-12 | Coventry City FC | Win | ✗ missed |
| 2026-09-19 | Hull City AFC | Loss | ✗ missed |
| 2026-09-14 | Leeds United FC | Loss | ✓ result |
| 2026-09-08 | Millwall | Win | ✓ result |
4 earlier matches are left out of the figures above. For 1 of them, no stored forecast remained to be checked by the time the match was scored, which leaves nothing to verify and does not say why the record is missing. For 3 of them, pre-kickoff publication could not be established. They are not counted as hits or as misses, and nothing has been removed.
Newcastle's win, draw and loss probability for each upcoming match, with the single most likely scoreline. These are generated before a ball is kicked and are not revised after the fact.
| Date | Fixture | Win | Draw | Loss | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-21 | Newcastle vs Arsenal | 21% | 28% | 51% | 1-1 |
| 2026-11-29 | Brighton vs Newcastle | 8% | 15% | 77% | 2-0 |
| 2026-12-02 | Newcastle vs Manchester United | 47% | 26% | 27% | 1-1 |
| 2026-12-06 | Newcastle vs Sunderland | 56% | 25% | 19% | 1-1 |
| 2026-12-12 | Ipswich vs Newcastle | 29% | 24% | 47% | 1-1 |
| 2026-12-19 | Brentford vs Newcastle | 16% | 22% | 62% | 1-1 |
| 2026-12-26 | Newcastle vs Manchester City | 24% | 24% | 52% | 1-1 |
| 2026-12-30 | Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest | 48% | 29% | 23% | 1-1 |
| 2027-01-03 | Chelsea vs Newcastle | 20% | 21% | 59% | 2-1 |
| 2027-01-07 | Manchester United vs Newcastle | 31% | 27% | 42% | 1-1 |
| 2027-01-16 | Newcastle vs Fulham | 40% | 29% | 31% | 1-1 |
| 2027-01-23 | Arsenal vs Newcastle | 13% | 23% | 64% | 2-0 |
| 2027-01-30 | Newcastle vs Brighton | 15% | 21% | 64% | 1-2 |
| 2027-02-06 | Everton vs Newcastle | 20% | 27% | 53% | 1-1 |
| 2027-02-10 | Newcastle vs Chelsea | 34% | 24% | 42% | 1-1 |
| 2027-02-20 | Manchester City vs Newcastle | 13% | 19% | 68% | 2-1 |
| 2027-02-27 | Newcastle vs Brentford | 26% | 26% | 48% | 1-1 |
| 2027-03-03 | Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | 33% | 31% | 36% | 1-1 |
| 2027-03-13 | Bournemouth vs Newcastle | 23% | 24% | 53% | 1-1 |
| 2027-03-20 | Newcastle vs Leeds | 31% | 32% | 37% | 1-1 |
| 2027-04-10 | Liverpool vs Newcastle | 21% | 27% | 52% | 1-1 |
| 2027-04-17 | Newcastle vs Tottenham | 38% | 30% | 32% | 1-1 |
| 2027-04-24 | Newcastle vs Ipswich | 46% | 24% | 30% | 1-1 |
| 2027-05-01 | Sunderland vs Newcastle | 39% | 28% | 33% | 1-1 |
| 2027-05-08 | Newcastle vs Coventry | 52% | 25% | 23% | 1-1 |
| 2027-05-15 | Aston Villa vs Newcastle | 28% | 27% | 45% | 1-1 |
| 2027-05-23 | Newcastle vs Crystal Palace | 61% | 21% | 18% | 2-1 |
| 2027-05-30 | Hull City vs Newcastle | 23% | 27% | 50% | 1-1 |
Each fixture is priced with a Poisson model carrying a Dixon-Coles correction, the standard adjustment for the way an independent Poisson model misprices the four lowest scorelines: it lifts 0-0 and 1-1 and trims 1-0 and 0-1. Attack and defence strengths come from the league table, measured as goals scored and conceded per game relative to the division average, then adjusted for home advantage, recent form and the calibre of the opponent.
Those two strength numbers produce an expected goals figure for each side, which becomes a probability for every plausible scoreline. Adding up the cells where Newcastle score more than the opponent gives the win probability, and so on for draws and defeats. It is arithmetic, not opinion, and it has no idea who anyone supports.
Predictions are published before kickoff and scored afterwards on the same page, whether they were right or wrong.
See the full match hub →NUFC Pulse: Newcastle United AI match predictions. A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on fixtures, results and standings from API-Football.