| Kick-off | Sat, 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Venue | St James' Park |
Arsenal Favoured The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%.
| Newcastle win | 21% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28% |
| Arsenal win | 51% |
Expected goals: Newcastle 0.9, Arsenal 1.5.
Other likely scorelines: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%).
Medium Confidence · Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on team attack and defence strengths, recent form and venue · public track record
Newcastle have 2 fixtures left against Arsenal this season. The model prices each one separately, because home advantage and the state of the table move the numbers between them.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Newcastle win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 | Newcastle vs Arsenal | St James' Park | 21% / 28% / 51% |
| Sat, 23 Jan 2027 · 15:00 | Arsenal vs Newcastle | Emirates Stadium | 13% / 23% / 64% |
Arsenal are 1st in the Premier League on 24 points from 9 games: 8 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost.
They have scored 14 goals, the joint 5th most in the division, and conceded 5, the fewest: 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded a game, against a division average of 1.3.
Newcastle are 13th on 11 points, 13 points and 12 places below Arsenal.
| League table | Pos | Pts | Pld | W-D-L | GF-GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 13 | 11 | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12-15 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 24 | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14-5 |
Full AI preview with team news, tactics and talking points lands in match week (13 days to go).
Live match centre →Brighton vs Newcastle · Newcastle vs Manchester United · Newcastle vs Sunderland · Ipswich vs Newcastle · Brentford vs Newcastle · Newcastle vs Manchester City
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NUFC Pulse: Newcastle United AI match predictions. A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on fixtures, results and standings from API-Football.