| Kick-off | Sun, 6 Dec 2026 · 14:00 |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Venue | St James' Park |
Home Win Likely The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%.
| Newcastle win | 56% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25% |
| Sunderland win | 19% |
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.8, Sunderland 1.
Other likely scorelines: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%).
High Confidence · Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on team attack and defence strengths, recent form and venue · public track record
Newcastle have 2 fixtures left against Sunderland this season. The model prices each one separately, because home advantage and the state of the table move the numbers between them.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Newcastle win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 6 Dec 2026 · 14:00 | Newcastle vs Sunderland | St James' Park | 56% / 25% / 19% |
| Sat, 1 May 2027 · 15:00 | Sunderland vs Newcastle | Stadium of Light | 39% / 28% / 33% |
Sunderland are 20th in the Premier League on 5 points from 9 games: 1 won, 2 drawn and 6 lost.
They have scored 7 goals, the 2nd fewest in the division, and conceded 17, the 4th most: 0.8 scored and 1.9 conceded a game, against a division average of 1.3.
Newcastle are 13th on 11 points, 6 points and 7 places above Sunderland.
| League table | Pos | Pts | Pld | W-D-L | GF-GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 13 | 11 | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12-15 |
| Sunderland | 20 | 5 | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7-17 |
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NUFC Pulse: Newcastle United AI match predictions. A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on fixtures, results and standings from API-Football.