| Kick-off | Sat, 19 Sept 2026 · 15:00 |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Venue | St James' Park |
Too Close to Call The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%.
| Newcastle win | 32% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29% |
| Hull City win | 39% |
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.2, Hull City 1.4.
Other likely scorelines: 0-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%).
Low Confidence · Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on team attack and defence strengths, recent form and venue · public track record
Newcastle have 2 fixtures left against Hull City this season. The model prices each one separately, because home advantage and the state of the table move the numbers between the two.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Venue | Newcastle win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 · 15:00 | Newcastle vs Hull City | St James' Park | 32% / 29% / 39% |
| Sun, 30 May 2027 · 16:00 | Hull City vs Newcastle | MKM Stadium | 21% / 25% / 54% |
| League table | Pos | Pts | Pld | W-D-L | GF-GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1-2-1 | 7-8 |
| Hull City | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2-2-0 | 5-2 |
Five points, one shattering afternoon at Leeds where Newcastle shipped four, and a squad that still looks capable of better given the 2-0 win over Tottenham sits in that same run of five games. Hull arrive on eight points having drawn 2-2 with Chelsea and 0-0 with Aston Villa, results that suggest a side hard to break down rather than one running away with anything. Newcastle fans watched their team beat West Brom 3-2 and Millwall 1-0 in the cups, so the quality is there in patches. The question is which version of Newcastle turns up at St James' Park.
Hull's two draws against Chelsea and Villa show a team that can be pinned back and controlled for long spells, and Newcastle should have the players to dominate territory even if the Leeds capitulation exposed serious defensive alarm bells. Yankuba Wissa carries 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 appearances this season and played every minute last time out, rated 6.4 with 2 key passes, so his link play matters. Bruno Guimaraes is not in this data, but Sean Steur's 6.2 with 2 tackles in 71 minutes and Lewis Hall's 4 tackles in 90 minutes suggest the midfield graft is there. Newcastle simply cannot repeat whatever unravelled defensively against Leeds, or Hull's threat on the counter, shown by that win over Manchester United, will punish them.
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NUFC Pulse: Newcastle United AI match predictions. A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, run on fixtures, results and standings from API-Football.